By Li Jingyao
Rumors swirl over the detention of Zhang Youxia
In recent days, rumors that Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC)—the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) highest military decision-making body—has been detained have spread rapidly. Multiple versions of the story are circulating. The latest claims assert that Zhang’s entire family has been taken into custody and that PLA Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli and senior military political officer Zhong Shaojun were also detained. According to these reports, the CCP leadership has already issued internal notifications.
Some analysts argue that if Xi Jinping were to move against Zhang Youxia, he would need the backing of three separate power centers. None could be missing. One individual, they say, would play a decisive role.
The political meaning of ‘absence’
On Jan. 20, a high-level study session for “principal leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial level” on implementing the spirit of the CCP’s Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee opened at the Central Party School. Xi Jinping delivered the keynote address.
State broadcaster CCTV footage showed several prominent figures absent from the opening ceremony: CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia; PLA Joint Staff Department Chief Liu Zhenli; Organization Department Minister Shi Taifeng; Vice Premier He Lifeng; and Politburo member Ma Xingrui. Online, speculation about Zhang Youxia’s detention intensified.
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Political scientist Song Guocheng noted that “there is no smoke without fire.” In China’s political system, rumors sometimes function as early prophecy. The power struggle between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping has long drawn outside attention. At the CCP’s highest levels, absence itself carries political meaning.
“Any such politically charged absence is a weather vane of internal power struggle,” Song said. “It suggests Xi may be pulling political purges back into the Central Military Commission under his personal control. For the CCP leadership, this signals elevated risk—an ominous sign of future power clashes.”
U.S.-based political commentator Chen Pokong argued that Xi has long used the “knife handle” of internal security against the “gun barrel” of the military—deploying secretaries, drivers, intelligence agents, and political overseers to keep tabs on senior officers. With rumors now flying everywhere, Chen said the situation appears extremely grave. “Chinese Communist politics still follow the same dark logic,” he said. “Whoever is thick-skinned enough, ruthless enough, and cruel to the end wins.”
Six versions of the Zhang Youxia detention story
At present, six major versions of the Zhang Youxia rumor are circulating:
Version One: Zhang Youxia was summoned by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) for questioning and has completed it.
According to this account, the CCDI’s anti-corruption probe implicated Zhang’s son, Zhang Wenjie. Zhang Youxia was drawn in by association and went in for questioning. Liu Zhenli, also reportedly under investigation for corruption, was absent for the same reason.
Version Two: Zhang Youxia was detained as early as Jan. 17 at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing.
This version claims Xi Jinping mobilized large numbers of armed police and troops, and that Zhang resisted fiercely, creating a dramatic and dangerous standoff.
Version Three: Zhang Youxia was detained on the night of Jan. 19, the eve of the meeting.
Reports say Zhang’s wife, son, secretary, and Liu Zhenli were taken at the same time.
Version Four: Xi Jinping suddenly ordered the CCDI to arrest Zhang Youxia on Jan. 19.
According to this narrative, CCDI agents raided Zhang’s residence before dawn with armed police support. Before being taken, Zhang allegedly used a prearranged secret channel to alert Liu Zhenli. Twenty minutes later, Liu reportedly led more than 200 PLA special task force members to surround the site. After an intense firefight, the CCDI forces were overpowered and forced to hand Zhang over. Liu then escorted Zhang to the August 1 Building—PLA headquarters—for protection. The Xi and Zhang camps, this version claims, remain in a tense standoff.
Version Five: Nothing happened; all of it is rumor.
Independent commentator Cai Shenkun said he contacted Zhang Youxia’s secretary through private channels and received a blunt reply: “Nonsense. None of this is real.”
Version Six: Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Zhong Shaojun were all detained simultaneously.
Cai Shenkun later reported new information. On Jan.22, he posted on X that it had been “confirmed” that Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, and Zhong Shaojun were detained, along with all members of Zhang’s family, and that internal CCP notifications had already been issued.
Funeral wreaths and a new claim of mass detentions
According to these claims, Zhang Youxia not only missed the Central Party School study session but also skipped a scheduled annual event at the National Defense University. More strikingly, after the death of retired General Wei Fulin, a former deputy chief of the General Staff, the funeral wreath sent in Zhang Youxia’s name was reportedly ordered removed at the last minute.
Cai said rumors are multiplying and becoming increasingly lurid. “I just heard that Wang Xiaohong’s Special Service Bureau detained military personnel,” he wrote, “including Zhong Shaojun, who had just been released and was taken again. Seventeen people were detained in one sweep.”
Given the difficulty of verifying sources, Cai suggested waiting to see whether Zhang Youxia appears at the Lunar New Year reception. “If Zhang really has been detained,” he wrote, “it means Xi Jinping has completely turned against the red aristocratic families. The next act will be how these families intervene at critical moments. If they act together, very few of Xi’s confidants would dare resist to the end.”
Three preconditions—and why Zhang Shengmin matters
Commentator Li Dayu argued that if the detention reports are true, there is only one plausible explanation: cooperation from Zhang Shengmin, who would have played a key role. At present, Li said, Zhang Shengmin is effectively Xi Jinping’s only reliable figure within the military.
Zhang Shengmin, formerly political commissar of the PLA Rocket Force, was not traditionally aligned with Zhang Youxia. Xi Jinping had promoted him unusually quickly and owed him personal patronage. After the Rocket Force was effectively purged wholesale, Zhang Shengmin may have formed a temporary alliance with Zhang Youxia for self-preservation.
“Under Xi’s rhetorical and political pressure,” Li said, “whether Zhang Shengmin could hold that alliance without being persuaded is very hard to say.”
Within the CCP system, Li added, corruption is endemic. Online, damaging allegations about Zhang Youxia’s family have circulated, reportedly linked to Chen Zhi, who was recently repatriated to China. Armed with such material, Xi would possess what Li called an “imperial sword,” using it to pressure party elders behind the scenes. Cornered, the elders would have little room to veto the move, leading to the detention of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.
Li emphasized that he remains highly skeptical of the detention claims. To move against Zhang Youxia, Xi would need three things simultaneously: the acquiescence of party elders, the cooperation of Zhang Shengmin, and sufficient incriminating material on Zhang Youxia. Without all three, it would be extremely difficult.