This is HUGE if true.

Unverified report: Vice Chairman of the CCP’s Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission Liu Zhenli, and Former Director of the General Office of the Central Military Commission Zhong Shaojun were arrested at the same time.

Also arrested were all family members of Zhang Youxia. This has been notified to the high-level officials within the CCP.

In addition to being absent from the opening ceremony of the special seminar for major provincial and ministerial-level leading cadres to study and implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party, Zhang Youxia also missed the originally scheduled annual activity of the National Defense University.

More importantly, when former Deputy Chief of the General Staff General Wei Fulin passed away, the wreath sent Zhang Youxia was also notified to be temporarily removed.

The above was posted by independent Chinese commentator Cai Shenkun, who previously reported about the arrest of former CCP defense minister Li Shangfu ahead of official media.

🚨Full Recap of Rumors Surrounding Zhang Youxia's Alleged Arrest:

🔥January 20: The so-called "special study class" for provincial and ministerial-level senior officials on the 20th Central Committee’s Fourth Plenum was held with an opening ceremony at the Central Party School in Beijing. Seated on the rostrum were the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee and Vice President Han Zheng. The meeting was presided over by Premier Li Qiang, with Xi Jinping delivering a speech.

However, sharp-eyed viewers noticed from CCTV footage that, in the first row of seats for Politburo members in the audience, it was the newly promoted CMC Vice Chairman and Secretary of the CMC Discipline Inspection Commission, Zhang Shengmin (张升民), who appeared, while CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia was absent. Military attendees also included Defense Minister Dong Jun.

Three other Politburo members were also absent: former Xinjiang Party Secretary Ma Xingrui, Central Organization Department Minister Shi Taifeng, and Vice Premier He Lifeng.

Ma Xingrui had already missed several important meetings multiple times, making his downfall almost a foregone conclusion. He Lifeng's absence was officially confirmed—he was attending the Davos Forum in Switzerland from January 19 to 22. The reason for Shi Taifeng's absence remains unknown.

Looking back at the opening ceremony of the "special study class" for provincial and ministerial-level leading cadres on the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee, held on October 29, 2024, Zhang Youxia sat side by side with then-CMC Vice Chairman He Weidong in the front row. He Weidong had already fallen in 2025. Both were Politburo members at the time. Now, it was non-Politburo member Zhang Shengmin and Dong Jun attending.

The outside world viewed Zhang Youxia's absence from such an important meeting he shouldn't have missed as highly abnormal. This anomaly instantly sparked massive speculation, with rumors spreading like vines across overseas social platforms.

The X account "Sino-Japanese Political and Economic Commentary" appears to have been one of the earlier ones to post about it, stating: "The big drama at the start of 2026: The two CMC vice chairmen from the 20th National Congress have finally 'met up' in victory." He also attached a photo of Zhang Youxia and He Weidong sitting side by side.

Soon after, he posted again: "Vice Chairman Zhang's son has also been taken away, wearing a black hood—extremely humiliating..."

South Korea-based writer and economist Su Xiaohe described details of the alleged arrest scene. According to him, Xi Jinping set up an ambush of 100 people at the Central Party School. Zhang Youxia had only four guards with him. Realizing he was outnumbered, Zhang remained exceptionally calm and did not resist, before being transferred to a secret location.

Self-media figure Lawrence claimed Zhang Youxia was arrested at the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing on January 17.

Australian self-media personality Jiang Wangzheng, who often exposes CCP internal affairs, said during a live stream late on January 20 (local time) that he had learned at noon that day about Zhang Youxia being "talked to" (summoned for questioning), his son and key secretary being investigated, and CMC Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli being placed under "liuzhi" (留置, detention). After verification, he broadcast the news.

However, he believed Xi Jinping would not investigate Zhang Youxia—only "talk to" him.

"Being talked to" is more of a supervisory measure: requiring explanations, clarifications, and self-reflection, essentially a warning.

"Being investigated" means involvement in criminal facts.

"Liuzhi" is a coercive measure by disciplinary organs, fully isolating the person from the outside world for up to 16 months. There's a saying: once in a Discipline Inspection liuzhi room, the only thing left is reflecting on crimes—everyone eventually confesses; no one holds out.

Thus, watch Liu Zhenli: if he doesn't reappear in public for a long time, he's likely in danger.

On January 21, Jiang Wangzheng revealed further that the CCP had established a CMC Political Review Group, led by Xi's confidant and Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi. This is quite rare. Why Cai Qi instead of the CCDI or CMC Discipline Inspection? Jiang explained that when a Central Committee member has issues, it's handled by the First Secretary of the Central Secretariat—currently Cai Qi.

He said Zhang Youxia signed some documents that afternoon and went home, but his son and key secretary were taken away. On the morning of January 21, his administrative and duty secretaries were also taken. That evening (January 20), several officers who dined with his administrative secretary were summoned to the CCDI.

According to Jiang's sources, Zhang Shengmin has some influence over the CMC Discipline Inspection, but Zhang Youxia and Zhang Shengmin share interests. CMC Discipline work now reports to Cai Qi. Jiang speculated Zhang Youxia's issues may be serious but need further observation and verification.

🚨Another potentially related event:

On January 18, an explosion occurred at the steam spherical tank of Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Plate Plant, under Baotou Steel Group—China's (and the world's) largest rare earth enterprise. When Inner Mongolia Party Secretary Wang Weizhong went to "guide the work," he emphasized implementing instructions from Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi. Wang elevating Cai Qi to such prominence surprised outsiders.

However, later reports on Inner Mongolia's official news site replaced "Cai Qi" with "central leading comrades," changing it to Wang Weizhong saying "quickly implement the instructions from central leading comrades."

U.S.-based independent commentator Cai Shenkun, who previously accurately reported the arrest of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, posted on X that Wang Weizhong's elevation of Cai Qi gave Cai a cold sweat, as past similar instructions usually mentioned only Xi Jinping (Li Qiang rarely appears). Was the explosion not severe enough for Xi's attention? Or had Cai Qi taken over part of Xi's authority?

This sudden "Cai Qi overstepping Xi" — could it indicate a major shift in the power structure at the top?

Political commentator Chen Pokong analyzed on his channel that one possibility for changing "Cai Qi's instructions" to "central leading comrades" is that Xi Jinping had suffered a major political incident. Another is that Xi suddenly fell ill, and no one dared issue instructions on his behalf for fear he was truly unconscious.

Chen said it's also possible Xi faked illness to counterattack Zhang Youxia and the elders, reclaiming power. Right after the Inner Mongolia explosion, rumors of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli's arrests emerged on January 20.

Chen believes it could be Cai Qi cooperating with Xi in a play: Xi pretends to be ill and unable to issue instructions, Cai does it in his place. When Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, thinking Xi was gravely ill and off guard, were successfully countered. Then Cai's name was changed back to "central leading comrades."

Of course, many big accounts consider the rumors of Zhang Youxia's arrest unreliable.

Former Navy Headquarters Lieutenant Colonel Staff Officer Yao Cheng believes Xi has lost power in the military and lacks the ability to arrest Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.

In a recent live stream, Yao revealed that Zhang Youxia will resign as CMC Vice Chairman during next year's Two Sessions, setting an example by retiring first to pressure Xi into resigning as State Chairman and CMC Chairman. Thus, recent rumors about Zhang's troubles and the Baotou explosion with Cai's instructions aren't baseless. Some in the CCP want Xi to step down early but oppose arresting him, as it would cause severe internal shock and threaten regime stability.

Du Wen, former executive director of the Legal Advisory Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government, directly called Zhang Youxia's arrest a rumor.

He analyzed that, from historical experience, missing such meetings doesn't mean a purge. Statistics show this is the 13th such study class under Xi— not every Politburo member attends every one. There's no hard rule requiring Zhang Youxia's presence. Missing one meeting isn't enough to prove trouble.

Du said if Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli continue to miss multiple major occasions, then discuss it.

Fei Tian University professor Zhang Tianliang identified four key points in the Zhang Youxia arrest rumors:

1⃣If true, the CMC now has only two left—Zhang Shengmin would also be in danger;

2⃣If the rumored Xi-Zhang struggle is real, previously taken-down Miao Hua, He Weidong, and unannounced 31st Army generals might be released (though he doubts it);

3⃣Watch the Politburo meeting at month's end for Zhang Youxia's appearance;

4⃣If Zhang is truly arrested, fear would spread in the military, potentially sparking a coup.

Zhang Tianliang added that Xi wants a third term at the 21st Congress, so Zhang's arrest might stem from non-support.

Finally, he said one possibility is that it's all fake news to destroy self-media credibility.

Cai Shenkun previously analyzed that for a long time, the anti-Xi faction pinned hopes on Zhang Youxia, who has great influence among elders, yet he remained inactive. Last year-end, an open letter to "General Zhang Youxia" appeared online, urging him to follow the will of the people and party, launch a military coup against Xi.

Cai believes this letter put Zhang on the spot, forcing him to act. If Zhang is taken down now, it's the inevitable result of his indecision at the critical moment.

The open letter calling for Zhang to "launch a military coup" was posted in December last year by X user "New Highland."

It argued Zhang had only three paths: "turn fiction into reality" by launching a coup, "die to atone" ensuring his family avoids implication, or "live in humiliation" awaiting secret arrest. It urged him to choose soon.

After rumors of Zhang's purge surfaced, "New Highland" lamented that he had called over a month earlier for Zhang to rise up—otherwise, only death or arrest awaited.

On January 20, Cai Shenkun posted that he received news of Zhang Youxia's arrest, growing more sensational.

He wrote: "Just heard it's Wang Xiaohong( Public Security Minister)'s special service bureau that arrested military personnel, including Zhong Shaojun (recently released) being re-arrested—17 people at once. Sources unverified, so let the bullet fly longer. Watch if Zhang appears at the Spring Festival celebration event. If truly arrested, it means Xi and the red families have fully broken—next act is how the red families strike back at key moments. If they unite against him, few of Xi's confidants will resist to the end."

Jiang Wangzheng and Cai Shenkun's info seems to cross-verify—if true, "New Highland" was prophetic!

Chinese language commentator Fang Yuan said, "CCP's black-box politics means the outside world always sees through fog. Any sliver of info is treasured, rumors amplified repeatedly. Talk of high-level power struggles, Xi stepping down, or Zhang Youxia's coup gives people hope that some figure in the CCP leadership can solve China's plight. But can these high-level figures really save the nation? Really dismantle the CCP? If the result is just another Xi—say Zhang Jinping or Wang Jinping—and the CCP regime stands firm, is that what the Chinese people want to see?"