Digging into China

https://video1-us-east.cloudokyo.cloud/video/v12/eb/ea/52/ebea520c-dfb3-4ba4-869a-d49d90a710bd/master.m3u8

The escalating trade war, marked by high U.S. tariffs, is poised to drive China’s economy into negative growth, with GDP potentially declining by 3.1% to 5.2%. Transshipment trade is increasingly unviable due to prohibitive costs and global rejection. Export volumes to the U.S. may drop by 70-90%, exacerbating port congestion and unemployment pressures, affecting 20 million workers and 11 million graduates. Factory closures and domestic dumping of goods risk further economic strain. The yuan’s stability is threatened as foreign exchange reserves dwindle, potentially necessitating U.S. Treasury bond sales. Political tensions, evidenced by public dissent and internal Party struggles, compound economic challenges. A framework of “Unknown Unknowns to Known Knowns” highlights the uncertainties and known impacts, while public pragmatism undermines Party propaganda, signaling a critical juncture for economic and political stability.

#TradeWar #ChinaEconomy #GDPDecline #EconomicAnalysis #USChinaRelations

OUTLINE: 

00:00:00 Introduction to China's Economic Challenges
00:00:39 Impact of Trade Agreements and Tariffs
00:01:24 Analysis of Trade Volume and the 'Unknown Unknowns' Framework
00:01:50 The Four Quadrants Explained
00:02:41 Analyzing and Consolidating Information
00:03:07 Current 'Unknown Knowns' and 'Known Unknowns'
00:04:01 Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus Measures
00:04:20 'Known Knowns' and Their Impact on GDP
00:05:28 Port Overload and Decreased Freight Volume
00:05:53 Job Losses and Price Pressures
00:06:34 Domestic Dumping vs. Factory Closures
00:07:27 Impact on Export Volume and Manufacturing
00:08:17 Trade Volume Decline Scenarios
00:08:42 Why Not Redirect to Third Countries?
00:09:08 The Cost of Handling Abandoned Goods
00:09:44 Peak College Graduates and Job Market Pressure
00:10:11 Incident in Chengdu and Inefficient Governance
00:10:57 Growing Inefficiency and Repressive Machinery
00:11:52 Impact on Chinese Yuan's Exchange Rate
00:12:30 Decline in Export Trade Volume
00:13:02 Potential Decline in Foreign Exchange Reserves
00:13:32 Risks of Using Short-Term Dollar Debt
00:14:14 The Danger of Foreign Debt
00:14:53 Internal Politics and Decision-Making
00:15:33 Erosion of Authority and Negotiation Indicators
00:15:57 Examples of Policy Shifts and Weakening Control
00:16:30 Stories from Factory Owners
00:17:21 Public Awakening and Pragmatism
00:17:59 Outdated Rhetoric of Online Supporters
00:18:41 Conclusion and Call to Action

Help me grow the channel by donating any amount through the link below—your support makes a difference!
https://paypal.me/DonXiang

Email me: DiggingToChina2020@gmail.com

Tariffs Trigger Crisis: China’s GDP Decline of 3.1% to 5.2% Looms

Digging into China